By Tony Lopez
In one week, two powerful typhoons devastated half of the Philippine archipelago of 7,600 islands.
The first, Tropical Cyclone Tino or Kalmaegi to non-Filipinos, entered Philippine territory on Nov. 2, and dropped a month’s rainfall in just 24 hours on the Visayas, central Philippines, and parts of Mindanao.
With maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (making it tropical cyclone) and gusts up to 150 km/h, Tino was devastating. At least 204 died, 109 are missing, and 156 are injured, 2.4 million were affected or dislocated in 32 provinces across eight regions, primarily Central Visayas or Region 7 (Cebu), Western Visayas or Region 6, and Eastern Visayas or Region 8.
Cebu’s double whammy
Cebu was shocked by a double whammy—Tino and a 6.9 magnitude earthquake on Sept. 30, 2025. The temblor affected some 747,979 individuals (216,947 families), left 79 people dead, 559 injured, and damaged 134,229 houses (of which 7,295 were totally destroyed) along with P6.76 billion in infrastructure losses, said ReliefWeb.
Billed as a super typhoon (sustained winds of 185 km/h and gusts of 230km/h), Uwan landed first in Catanduanes Nov. 9, and killed two—one in Catanduanes and the other in Catbalogan, Samar. Uwan forced the evacuation of 1.2 million residents in low-lying or coastal areas, unnecessarily, thanks to the inept and poor typhoon tracking by our PAGASA (the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration). Can we not just call PAGASA by its simple name? Weather Bureau. Anyway, I doubt that they deal in astronomy.
Fanciful gobbledygook
Since it became PAGASA, our weather bureau has been engaged in fanciful gobbledygook. What used to be simply a “storm” became a “typhoon”. Then typhoon became “tropical cyclone” (TC). Then PAGASA invented five TC signals, from what used to be three, based on wind speeds.
Explains the PAGASA website: “A Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) is a plain text warning to particular land area that may experience winds of at least strong breeze in strength on the Beaufort Scale (i.e., 39 km/h, 22 kt or higher) within at most 36 hours from the time the signal is put into effect during the passage of a tropical cyclone. A particular wind signal has an equivalent expected wind threat, length of time (in hours) before onset of expected wind threat, and potential impacts to the locality. The current TCWS system uses five levels of wind signals that are numbered from 1 to 5, with a higher signal number associated with higher general wind strength and shorter warning lead time.”
Signal No. 3 for Metro Manila:
Uwan did not come
On Sunday morning, Nov. 9, PAGASA raised TCWS 3 over Metro Manila. I grew up knowing only one typhoon signal, Signal No. 2 which means the typhoon is just beside you and you don’t go to school.
So with TCWS 3, I prepared for heavy rains and strong winds. The whole day of Nov. 9 up to early morning of Nov. 10, Monday, none of the heavy rains and strong winds came. But Metro Manila became a ghost town, thanks to PAGASA’s scare signal tactics.
A typhoon’s eye and eyewall
Not only that, per PAGASA, a tropical cyclone has an eye. That eye is surrounded by an eyewall. The eyewall is surrounded by rains. The eye is harmless. The eyewall is dangerous. When the rains fall, they become water. The problem arises when the congressman and the senator had pocketed the money intended for river protection. Then you get floods. Floods cause disaster. A disaster triggers ayuda (cash doleouts). Since they must dole out ayuda, the mayor, the congressman and the senator have to be corrupt. It’s a vicious cycle. Just like a storm, a typhoon, a tropical cyclone.
The government has 22 pages-long list of bureaus. PAGASA should stand out for competence, reliability, and accuracy. Sadly, it does not.
Evacuated unnecessarily
Imagine the consternation of the 1.2 million Filipinos who were forced by the government to evacuate to escape winds of 185 to 220 kph. At P300 per person, 1.2 million people evacuated is P360 million gone with the wind, literally.
The President declared no government work in entire Luzon and Eastern Visayas. That’s 60% of the economy. Payroll is 29% of the annual budget of P6.7 trillion, or P1.94 trillion a year or P91.6 billion a day. Total loss of productivity for Luzon government people not working for one day but still getting paid: P55 billion.
Meanwhile, according to ReliefWeb, Tino’s, heavy to intense rainfall caused flooding in at least 41 municipalities and landslides in multiple provinces. Over 12,600 houses were reported damaged (487 totally and 12,190 partially).
Hardest hit by Tino
Hardest hit were Cebu, Dinagat Islands, Leyte, and Surigao del Norte. Cebu reported 111 deaths and over 87,000 displaced families from widespread urban flooding.
In Dinagat, 36% of the population was displaced, with significant infrastructure damage and WASH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene) disruptions.
Leyte and Biliran experienced extensive flooding, water contamination, and subsequent health alerts due to compromised sanitation and stagnant floodwaters.
Preliminary estimates indicate $292 thousand (P17.25 million) in infrastructure damage and (P10.9 million) in agricultural losses, affecting over 600 farmers and fisherfolk and more than 460 hectares of cropland.
Across five regions, around 1.9 million pupils and 79,000 education personnel were affected, with 3,478 public schools reporting class suspensions. At least 412 schools in seven regions were converted into evacuation centers, temporarily housing displaced families. A damage assessment identified 1,975 classrooms as minorly damaged, 737 as majorly damaged, and 548 totally destroyed.
P1.86 billion to repair classrooms
The Department of Education estimates that approximately P30.6 million will be required for clean-up and clearing operations. An additional P1.86 billion is needed to repair classrooms.
Tino caused severe disruption to essential services, leaving many areas without power, water, and communications.
Uwan crossed Luzon westward in just six hours, sparing the country of the doomsday damage predicted by PAGASA. The weather bureau credits the Sierra Madre for Uwan’s sudden loss of firepower. Not its flawed forecast.