By TONY LOPEZ
Two recent developments have had deleterious effects on the economy and the lifestyle of the Filipino: one, the flood control corruption in which up to P1 trillion of our money is being stolen by our senators and congressmen in tandem with corrupt DPWH officials and even more corrupt private contractors, and two, the Iran war.
The Iran war’s main effect has been a sharp rise in prices of nearly everything, including coffins and burial costs. I estimate the effects to last, at most, two years.
Brent crude hit above $114 a barrel and, at this writing, hit $108, up 58% from its 2025 average of $68.32. On May 6, 2026, Brent fell to $101.91 with improved prospects for a peace deal between the US and Iran.
Crude price used to be much higher
We have seen higher crude prices before. Brent rose to as high as $125.08 in June 2022, four months after Russia invaded Ukraine.
True, inflation rose to a three-year high of 7.2% in April 2026. Inflation could average 4% in 2026, per ADB, and go down to 3.5% in 2027 – close to our 3.2% inflation average in 2024.
In 2026, GDP growth will average 4.4%, same as 2025. ASEAN average GDP growth in 2026: 4.6%. Per the Asian Development Bank, our GDP growth rises to 5.5% in 2027 – the second highest in ASEAN, after Vietnam’s seven percent. In first quarter 2026, GDP growth slowed, to 2.8%, the lowest since 2021 and a post-pandemic low.
The Iran war’s effects are manageable.
True, Hong Kong-based Fitch Ratings downgraded on April 20, 2026 the outlook on the Philippines’ Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Negative from Stable and affirmed the IDR at “BBB.”
Fitch cited rising risks to the Philippines’ strong medium-term growth prospects from recent disruptions to public investment, exacerbated in the near-term by elevated exposure to the ongoing global energy shock. “These challenges could narrow the country’s GDP growth outperformance relative to peers, amid higher post-pandemic government debt and a gradual and sustained deterioration in its external finance position,” the rating agency said.
PH still good credit quality
Still, a Fitch BBB indicates “good credit quality” and low expectation of default risk. The country is still investment grade. It can meet financial commitments. While adequate, a BBB rating indicates more vulnerability to adverse economic conditions than higher-rated firms.
“Despite rising risks, medium-term GDP growth will remain robust, supporting a gradual reduction in government debt,” Fitch pointed out. The rating is constrained by relatively low per capita GDP and governance scores, though Fitch believes World Bank Governance Indicator (WBGI) scores somewhat overstate this, it said.
“The government proactively declared a National Energy Emergency in March, which expanded its toolkit to manage the situation and took steps to cut fuel usage. Consumers are absorbing the bulk of energy price increases, with the government providing targeted subsidies to vulnerable sectors. As such, effects on the credit profile are likely to come through lower GDP growth, higher inflation and a rising current account deficit, with modest risks to public finances,” noted Fitch.
Flood control corruption cuts growth
Flood control corruption triggered a deep drop in economic growth, from 5.7% in 2024 to 4.4% in 2025 and to a projected 4.0% this 2026, a loss in economic output of 1.7 percentage points or P510 billion based on GDP of P30 trillion.
If each P2 million creates one job, a loss of P510 billion is equivalent to 250,000 jobs lost – because of flood control corruption. Also, P510 billion can feed five million malnourished kids daily for TEN years. If not properly fed, half of the five million will die. That’s 2.5 million kids dying or dead – because of flood control corruption.
Losing livelihoods and lives
Senator Ping Lacson says that because of flood control corruption, “Filipino families in more than 30 provinces with high and medium-high exposure to flooding across the country are sure to be flooded in months to come, at risk of losing their livelihoods and lives” and “our country stands to lose about $89 billion (P5.5 trillion in today’s peso rate) between 2022 and 2050 due to floods and tropical storms.”
Considering the grim numbers, shouldn’t the corrupt of the flood control syndicate be gathered, lined up against the wall and shot by firing squad, with extreme prejudice?
Effects if the corrupt die
The positive effect will be awesome. We save P510 billion a year, save 2.5 million lives and stop the stealing of P1 trillion a year. And the Philippines achieves its goal of upper middle income status instantly (we missed hitting it last year only by $26, $4,470 vs $4,496) and zero hunger earlier than the 2030 target year.
In Japanese and Korean culture, if you are caught stealing big time, you need no government intervention or due process. You kill yourself. It’s called harakiri. To save yourself and your family from perpetual shame. Harakiri or seppuku was used by the samurai of old to atone for sins, regain honor or avoid capture.
Judas never recovered his honor nor dignity – just because of 30 pieces of silver (current value: $3,000), small change given today’s P1 trillion a year Philippine flood control corruption. And yes, Judas committed suicide.
Perpetrators of corruption
In his privilege speech, Tuesday (May 5), Sen. Panfilo Lacson named the senators and congressmen behind the flood control corruption and who should be charged for offenses ranging from perjury, direct bribery, malversation, violations of the anti-graft law, money laundering and plunder. Plunder is non-bailable. Penalty is life imprisonment.
As chair of the Senate Blue Ribbon committee, Lacson recommends the filing of plunder charges against: former House speaker Martin Romualdez, former Senate president Chiz Escudero, former senator Bong Revilla and Senators Jinggoy Estrada and Joel Villanueva.
Honor among thieves
Last time I heard, these people were still being addressed as “honorable.” Which makes me wonder: Judas should have been declared a saint. Without his betrayal, Jesus would not have achieved his mission of redemption of mankind which, by the way, includes the likes of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.
Ping Lacson also wants former DPWH secretary Manuel Bonoan and former congressman Zaldy Co charged with plunder.
Harakiri, anyone?