By TONY LOPEZ
I am not an economist.
I have had exposure in economics. I am a bachelor of literature, major in journalism, magna cum laude, but my electives in college were economics, banking, and marketing. I also took up three semesters of MBA, at Ateneo, and MBA is basically applying economic fundamentals to your business so you make money and get rich.
As a business writer, I attended scores of economics seminars—by the central bank, by banks, by research institutions. I have covered business and the economy for 55 years. I am reporter who has visited more industrial plants (flour mills, breweries, potato chips factories, auto plants, gold and copper mines, semiconductors, smelters, steel mills, shipbuilding plants) and more PEZA zones, than anyone in the business. I interviewed and interacted with nearly all our economic managers, the best—and the worst– of them, from 1970 to the present. Of course, I also covered politicians—hundreds by now. Many, if not most of them, are bad economic managers. Except when they promote their families and their vested interests. That is when they are at their best.
Our politics and our economy today are undergoing a catharsis. In Greek tragedy, catharsis means a purgation or purification of emotions, like pity, fear, anger, so that at the end of it, you are cleared of your hangups, your burden is lighter, you feel better, you think better. And the future looks clearer and brighter.
Economic slump
The economy is in a slump. From an average of 6.4% from 2010 to 2019, we dive to 5 or below 5% growth in 2025. Growth forecasts by experts vary: 4.8% by S&P Global Ratings; 5.3% by the World Bank, 5.4% by the IMF, and 5.6% by the Manila-based Asian Development Bank. Still, these growth rates make the Philippines the second best performing economy among the major countries of the ASEAN.
Many analysts blame the current flood control corruption scandal—with P1.7 trillion stolen in ten years, the worst act of corruption in our history—for slower growth. Since flood control spending is infra spending, and infra spending is a growth driver, therefore, when infra money is stolen (by senators, congressmen, DPWH chiefs and engineers, contractors, and by relatives and operatives of some residents by the Pasig), economic growth will be affected. Correct. But only up to a certain point.
Consumption economy
For 15 years, the Philippine economy has been driven primarily by consumption, not by investment—in things, like infrastructure. According to Karl Kendrick Chua, a former economic planning secretary and today one of our best economists, since 2010, of average yearly GDP growth of 5.3%, 4.9 percentage points were contributed by consumption. Only 0.4 percentage point was contributed by what is called “Others” –investment, government, net export).
This year, investment is down, government spending is down, and export is down. But those three things are only 7.5% of total economic output. The rest—92.5%, should be okay.
One of the biggest sources of consumption money are remittances, by 12 million Filipinos who live and work abroad. Remittances will exceed $35 billion this year. At P58 per dollar, $35 billion is P2.03 trillion. In October 2025 alone, cash remittances were $3.4 billion, up 11.9% year-on-year. During crises, and we are in the middle of one now, Filipinos abroad increase their remittances.
$38 billion from BPO
Another rich source of dollars is BPO earnings—$38 billion, or P2.2 trillion. If you make $73 billion from OFW remittances and BPO earnings, who needs FDIs (foreign direct investments)? FDIs total only $8 billion a year, if not less and the government has to forgo P220 billion in tax money just to baby-sit these foreign investors so they don’t get angry and pack up.
A big source of private consumption money is government money, the so-called ayuda. For 2025 alone, total government cash transfers to the poor would amount to P389 billion. Government has invested almost P2 trillion in government social services, reckoned Karl Kendrick Chua in his Nov. 14, 2025 lecture at UP Los Banos.
Government itself is a heavy employer. Two million people are employed officially by the government; three million by my estimate. And there has been a six-fold increase in government salaries.
Each of our senators makes on average P2 billion in salaries, benefits, and pork. They are our best paid public servants.
Billions for nothing
What do we get for that? Nothing–as in the case of Senator Bato dela Rosa who has been in hiding since Nov. 11, 2025, after Ombudsman Boying Remulla spread the gossip that the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant against the former PNP chief, for crimes against humanity.
You cannot blame the “courageous” Bato from not wanting to be a man of “conviction” (for crime against humanity). Once ICC arrests you, jail is forever. Look at Digong Duterte, in jail since March 11, this year, with little hope of ever seeing his country again, alive. At least in Digong’s case, Filipino taxpayers don’t pay for his being missing in action. In Bato’s case, we, taxpayers, are spending actually, P5.47 million day (two billion pesos divided by 365), every day he laughs his way from the pee room to the bedroom of his hiding place.
Upper middle income
Ironically, despite what Filipinos have been spending or wasting on their useless politicians, they have managed to accumulate a per capita income of $4,470, just $25 shy of what the World Bank calls an upper “middle income” person. Imagine, with all that corruption by our officials, Filipinos still end up being “medyo rich”, by global standards.
No wonder, last Sunday, Nov. 30, when the Catholic Church issued a call for marchers to assemble at EDSA to denounce corruption and crucify the corrupt, hardly 5,000 people showed up. Rainbows did. The middle class do not revolt. Only the poor do. But they get ayuda money—from the government.
— PhilStar