Senatorial winners

BizNewsAsia COVER STORY, Latest Issues, Spotlight Comments Off on Senatorial winners

BBM alliance to sweep May polls

By TONY LOPEZ

I  averaged the 2025 results of the OCTA Research (April 10-16) and SWS (April 11-15) surveys on senatoriables and here are the percentages and the equivalent in number of votes (assuming 45 million vote for senators, an extravagant assumption given that only half of voters vote for senators and the ballot fill-up rate averages just nine names):

  • 1. Bong Go, 54.6% or 24.57 million; 
  • 2. Erwin Tulfo, 52.1% or 23.45 million;
  • 3. Tito Sotto, 38.2% or 17.19 million;
  • 4. Ben Tulfo, 38.2% or 17.19 million;
  • 5. Pia Cayetano, 36.3% or 16.33 million;
  • 6. Bato dela Rosa, 36.2% or 16.29 million;
  • 7. Lito Lapid, 35.5% or 15.97 million;
  • 8. Bong Revilla, 34.9% or 15.7 million;
  • 9. Ping Lacson, 32.9% or 14.8 million;
  • 10. Abby Binay, 32.4% or 14.58 million;
  • 11. Camille Villar, 29.2% or 13.14 million; and
  • 12. Manny Pacquiao, 27.7% or 12.46 million.

With a fighting chance to make it into the Magic 12 are: 13. Bam Aquino, 26.7% or 12.0 million votes; 14. Willie Revillame, 26.5% or 11.92 million; 15. Imee Marcos, 25.95% or 11.67 million; 16. Kiko Pangilinan, 25.7% or 11.56 million; and 17. Benhur Abalos, 23.4% or 10.53 million.

Presidential sister Imee Marcos has an average of 25.95% voting for her in the OCTA/SWS polls or 11.67 million votes, about 782,250 votes short from No. 12, Pacquiao’s 12.46 million likely votes.  But then before Imee beats Pacquiao, she will have to overcome, first, Revillame, and second, Bam Aquino—quite a herculean ordeal.  Conclusion: Imee has a strong chance of losing.

In past senatorial elections, a senator wannabe could overtake a rival’s lead of up to two million votes—depending on how much he or she spends—at the grassroots and at the people running the electoral machinery, including Comelec itself. 

Imee is No. 17th in the OCTA survey and 14th in the SWS poll, both for April 2025.

From 28% voting for her in the January 2025 SWS poll to April’s 24%, she has lost four percentage points, equivalent to 1.8 million votes.  From 38% in the February 2025 OCTA poll to 27.9% in April 2025, the eldest Marcos kid has lost 10.1 percentage points or a whopping 4.54 million statistical votes.

Still, says SWS, “In statistical contention for the 12th place are Revillame, Willie Wil (IND) and Marcos, Imee R. (NP) tied in 13th–14th place, with 24% each.”

Says OCTA on its own April 2025 poll:

“Camille Villar with (30.4%) support, former Senator Emmanuel ‘Manny’ Pacquiao (30.3%), and Former Senator Kiko Pangilinan (30.3%) — each backed by around 30% of adult Filipinos — currently rank within the 10th to 18th spots. Willie ‘Wil’ Revillame, Benhur Abalos, Senator Imelda ‘Imee’ Marcos, and Senator Francis “Tol” Tolentino are on the list of probable winners. All four have a voting preference of approximately 28%, placing them within the 11th to 19th spots in the rankings.  Meanwhile, Phillip “Ipe” Salvador, with 24.4% support, ranked 12th to 20th.”