Sara Duterte would be VP with 45% of the vote
If elections were held today, former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. would win the presidency, with 53% of the total votes cast for president, according to the respected pollster Pulse Asia which conducted a face to face on Dec. 1-6, 2021, with 2,400 respondents. Error margin is just 2%.
Assuming a voter turnout of 55 million (out of 67 million registered voters), 53% would be equivalent to 29.15 million votes, a colossal 18.15 million more votes than the second placer, Vice President Leni Robredo, who will get only 20% or 11 million votes.
Both Manila Mayor Isko Moreno Domagoso and boxing champion Manny Pacquiao will place third, with 8% or 4.4 million possible votes. Former Senator Panfilo Lacson is fifth with 6% or 3.3 million votes.
Even if you credit the 2% error margin, equivalent to 1.1 million votes, to Robredo’s 11 million, she will get only 12.1 million, still 17 million fewer than Bongbong Marcos’s formidable 29.15 million votes.
If Marcos were not their first choice for president, voters’ second choice is not Leni Robredo. It will be Domagoso, 23%, and Lacson, 17%. Robredo is only third, with only 14% of voters making her their second choice.
Vice president
For vice president, Bongbong Marcos’s running mate, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte will get 45% of the votes, 14 percentage points more than the second placer, Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto, who has 31%. Robredo’s running mate, Senator Francis Pangilinan, is third choice for VP with 12%.
SWS survey
One and a half months earlier, the Social Weather Stations had its own survey commissioned by Stratbase ADR Institute.
SWS showed Bongbong Marcos the runaway winner, with 47% of the vote, 29 percentage points higher than Leni Robredo’s 18%.
SWS estimated Marcos’s 47% as equivalent to 29.28 million votes, 18.15 million votes more than Robredo’s 11.13 million.
The implication is that Bongbong Marcos keeps gaining ground, with more and more voters choosing him as the May 9, 2022 presidential election nears.
Robredo seems to have stagnated at 18-20% of the vote. Between now and election day, she must convince at least 18 million voters to match Marcos’s awesome votes total.
There are signs Robredo is losing, instead of gaining ground. Marcos Jr had 47% of the votes in October 2021 per SWS, 58% in November per Laylo, and 53% in December, per Pulse Asia.
For the same periods, Robredo had only 18% in October, lost ground with just 13% in November, and regained ground somehow, with 20% in early December.
Fourth quarter average: Marcos wins
Averaging the three surveys for the October-December period, Bongbong would be getting 52.66% of total votes cast for president while Robredo would be poor second with 17% average in the SWS, Laylo, and Pulse Asia surveys.
According to Pulse Asia’s December report, with around five (5) months to go before the May 2022 elections, former Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. has the lead in the presidential race.
The former lawmaker enjoys the support of 53% of Filipino adults.
Marcos wins in Metro Manila, Luzon, Mindanao, classes ABC and D
Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, majorities in Metro Manila (61%), the rest of Luzon (51%), Mindanao (64%), Class ABC (53%), and Class D (54%) would vote for ex-Senator Marcos if the May 2022 elections were held during the survey period.
Marcos’s presidential bid is also backed by a big plurality of Visayans (42%) and a near majority of those belonging to Class E (49%).
Robredo not even second choice for president
Should their original pick for president end up not pursuing his/her candidacy, 23% of those with a first choice for the post would instead vote for Manila Mayor Domagoso.
Sharing 2nd place in terms of second-choice voting figures are Senator Lacson (17%) and Vice-President Robredo (14%) while in 3rd place are Senator Pacquiao (11%) and former Senator Marcos (11%).
Filipino adults’ second-choice preferences for president are mixed in the different geographic areas and socio-economic groupings.
In Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, nearly the same percentages identify either Manila Mayor Domagoso (19% to 26%) or Senator Lacson (19% to 20%) as their alternative presidential bet or do not have a second-choice candidate for the post (24% to 26%).
A considerable plurality of Visayans (30%) name Manila Mayor Domagoso as their second-choice presidential candidate.
Practically the same second-choice voting figures are posted in Mindanao by Manila Mayor Domagoso (21%), Senator Pacquiao (20%), Senator Lacson (16%), Vice-President Robredo (14%), and former Senator Marcos (13%).
However, 12% of Mindanawons are not inclined to change their vote for president should their original candidate withdraw from the presidential race.
Those in Class ABC are most likely to shift their support to Senator Lacson (24%), Manila Mayor Domagoso (20%), or Vice-President Robredo (15%) but more than a quarter of those in this socio-economic grouping (28%) do not have a second-choice presidential candidate.
In Class D, around the same percentage would either shift their support for Manila Mayor Domagoso (24%) or not vote for any other candidate (20%) if their original presidential bet backs out from the May 2022 elections.
And in Class E, essentially the same voting figures are posted by Vice President Robredo (21%), Manila Mayor Domagoso (20%), Senator Pacquiao (18%), former Senator Marcos (17%), and Senator Lacson (14%).
Senatorial choices
In the Pulse Asia December 2021 poll, Taguig City-Pateros Representative Alan Cayetano is No.1 with 64.1%.
Close behind are Raffy Tulfo (60.0%) and Antique Representative Loren Legarda (58.7%), 2nd to 3rd places.
Sorsogon Governor Francis Escudero has the support of 53.9% of voters, a statistical ranking of 4th to 5th places.
Other probable winners are Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) Secretary Mark Villar (51.3%, 4th to 6th places) and Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri (49.5%, 5th to 6th places).
Former Vice-President Jejomar Binay (44.7%, 7th to 8th places); (2) Senator Joel Villanueva (41.6%, 7th to 9th places); (3) Senator Sherwin Gatchalian (40.1%, 8th to 9th places); President Rodrigo Duterte (35.8%, 10th to 14th places); (5) Mr. Robin Padilla (35.6%, 10th to 14th places); (6) Senator Risa Hontiveros (35.5%, 10th to 14th places); (7) former Senator Jinggoy Estrada (34.4%, 10th to 14th places); and (8) former Senator JV Estrada Ejercito (32.1%, 10th to 15th places).
A huge plurality of Filipino adults (45%) are in favor of having Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte as the country’s next vice president; in terms of second-choice voting figures, Senate President Vicente Sotto III has the lead (32%)
If the May 2022 elections coincided with the conduct of the interviews for the present survey, 45% of registered voters would elect Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte to replace Vice-President Maria Leonor G. Robredo.
The vice presidential bid of Senate President Vicente Sotto III is backed by 31% of voters while Senator Francis Pangilinan has the support of 12%.
In contrast, single-digit voter preferences are obtained by Dr. Willie Ong (6%) and Buhay Party List Representative Jose Atienza (1%).
Most Mindanawons (82%) as well as big pluralities to near majorities in Metro Manila (45%), Class ABC (47%), and Class D (44%) are inclined to vote for Davao City Mayor Duterte as vice-president in May 2022.
In the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, and Class E, basically the same levels of support are enjoyed by Davao City Mayor Duterte (29% to 48%) and Senate President Sotto (36% to 40%).
Senate President Sotto scores the highest second-choice voting figure (32%) while 2nd place is shared by Senator Pangilinan (16%) and Davao City Mayor Duterte (13%). Dr. Ong is the second choice for vice-president by 10% of registered voters.
A single-digit second-choice voter preference is obtained by Buhay Party List Representative Atienza (4%) while less than 1% opt for former Akbayan Party List Representative Bello (0.4%).
The plurality second-choice vice-presidential candidate in Mindanao (42%) and Class D (32%) is Senate President Sotto.
In Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, and Class ABC, basically the same percentages either identify Senate President Sotto as their alternative vice-presidential bet (29% to 36%) or would not vote for any other candidate should their original choice withdraw from the May 2022 elections (22% to 32%).
As for those in the Visayas and Class E, their top alternative vice-presidential candidates are Senate President Sotto (30% to 32%) and Senator Pangilinan (25% to 27%).
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Senatorial choices
A bare majority of registered voters (51%) have a complete slate for the May 2022 senatorial election; among the 48 candidates included in the senatorial list for the present survey, 14 have a statistical chance of winning, with Taguig City-Pateros Representative Alan Peter Cayetano securing solo 1st place3 (64.1%)
About 51% of registered voters are naming 12 of their preferred candidates for senator (i.e., out of a maximum of 12).
Majority figures are recorded only in the Visayas (70%), Mindanao (77%), and Class E (69%) while nearly half of those in Classes ABC and D (both at 49%) also have a complete senatorial slate. Only about a third of those in Metro Manila (35%) and the rest of Luzon (33%) express support for 12 senator candidates.
Of the 14 possible winners in the May 2022 senatorial race, nine (9) are either current or former members of Congress.
As of December 2021, Taguig City-Pateros Representative Alan Cayetano is the leading senatorial pick of Filipino voters, with 64.1% including him in their list of preferred senatorial candidates.
Close behind are Raffy Tulfo (60.0%) and Antique Representative Loren Legarda (58.7%), who share 2nd to 3rd places.
Sorsogon Governor Francis Escudero has the support of 53.9% of voters, which equates to a statistical ranking of 4th to 5th places.
Mark Villar in 4th to 6th places
Completing the top half of probable winners are Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) Secretary Mark Villar (51.3%, 4th to 6th places) and Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri (49.5%, 5th to 6th places).
In the bottom half of those with a statistical chance of winning in next year’s senatorial election are:
Former Vice-President Jejomar Binay (44.7%, 7th to 8th places); (2) Senator Joel Villanueva (41.6%, 7th to 9th places); (3) Senator Sherwin Gatchalian (40.1%, 8th to 9th places);
President Rodrigo Duterte (35.8%, 10th to 14th places); (5) Mr. Robin Padilla (35.6%, 10th to 14th places); (6) Senator Risa Hontiveros (35.5%, 10th to 14th places); (7) former Senator Jinggoy Estrada (34.4%, 10th to 14th places); and (8) former Senator JV Estrada Ejercito (32.1%, 10th to 15th places).